Target Price Playground
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ LOW
(-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1990 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1773.96 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MELI hits $1990 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$21,604 (12.2%) on $177,396 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MELI hits $1990 by Jun 19
+$21,604
+12.2% on $177,396 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$177,396
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$1773.96
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MELI Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1419 (-20%) | -$35,479 | -$35,479 | -$35,479 |
| $1508 (-15%) | -$26,609 | -$26,609 | -$26,609 |
| $1597 (-10%) | -$17,740 | -$17,740 | -$17,740 |
| $1685 (-5%) | -$8,870 | -$8,870 | -$8,870 |
| $1738 (-2%) | -$3,548 | -$3,548 | -$3,548 |
| $1774 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $1809 (+2%) | +$3,548 | +$3,548 | +$3,548 |
| $1863 (+5%) | +$8,870 | +$8,870 | +$8,870 |
| $1951 (+10%) | +$17,740 | +$17,740 | +$17,740 |
| $1990 (+12%) โ target | +$21,604 | +$21,604 | +$21,604 |
| $2040 (+15%) | +$26,609 | +$26,609 | +$26,609 |
| $2129 (+20%) | +$35,479 | +$35,479 | +$35,479 |
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.