Target Price Playground
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ LOW
(-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1950 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1773.96 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $1690 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $86.12 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MELI hits $1950 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$8,992 (4.8%) on $186,008 risked, vs +$17,604 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $177,396. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MELI is at $1950. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MELI hits $1950 by Jun 19
+$8,992
+4.8% on $186,008 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$17,008
Put floors you at $1690
Break-even
$1860.08
+4.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.39 / -83.21 / 280.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MELI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1419 (-20%) | -$15,411 | -$16,304 | -$17,051 | -$17,008 |
| $1508 (-15%) | -$13,052 | -$14,466 | -$16,050 | -$17,008 |
| $1597 (-10%) | -$9,710 | -$11,530 | -$13,861 | -$17,008 |
| $1685 (-5%) | -$5,344 | -$7,373 | -$10,080 | -$17,008 |
| $1738 (-2%) | -$2,249 | -$4,299 | -$7,004 | -$12,160 |
| $1774 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$2,023 | -$4,641 | -$8,612 |
| $1809 (+2%) | +$2,388 | +$420 | -$2,054 | -$5,064 |
| $1863 (+5%) | +$6,211 | +$4,369 | +$2,186 | +$258 |
| $1950 (+10%) โ target | +$13,034 | +$11,474 | +$9,854 | +$8,992 |
| $2040 (+15%) | +$20,648 | +$19,416 | +$18,340 | +$17,997 |
| $2129 (+20%) | +$28,581 | +$27,656 | +$26,994 | +$26,867 |
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.