Target Price Playground
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ LOW
(-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $2040 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $1770 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $141.67 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $1770 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $123.15 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MELI hits $2040 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$518 (2.0%) on $26,482 risked, vs +$26,604 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $177,396. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MELI is at $2040. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MELI hits $2040 by Jun 19
+$518
+2.0% on $26,482 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$26,482
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$2034.82
+14.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.91 / -195.77 / 599.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MELI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1419 (-20%) | +$10,966 | +$9,415 | +$8,413 | +$8,601 |
| $1508 (-15%) | +$5,505 | +$2,897 | +$465 | -$269 |
| $1597 (-10%) | +$1,747 | -$1,874 | -$5,996 | -$9,138 |
| $1685 (-5%) | -$103 | -$4,482 | -$10,010 | -$18,008 |
| $1738 (-2%) | -$272 | -$4,921 | -$10,944 | -$23,330 |
| $1774 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$4,745 | -$10,917 | -$26,086 |
| $1809 (+2%) | +$570 | -$4,205 | -$10,379 | -$22,538 |
| $1863 (+5%) | +$1,955 | -$2,749 | -$8,679 | -$17,216 |
| $1951 (+10%) | +$5,553 | +$1,220 | -$3,823 | -$8,346 |
| $2040 (+15%) โ target | +$10,526 | +$6,765 | +$2,864 | +$518 |
| $2129 (+20%) | +$16,605 | +$13,490 | +$10,673 | +$9,393 |
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.