Target Price Playground
MELI
$1,773.96
๐ข
MELI IV: 43.4% โ LOW
(-33.5% vs 30d avg of 65.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1920 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1773.96 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1920 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $57.74 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MELI hits $1920 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$20,378 (11.9%) on $171,622 risked, vs +$14,604 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $177,396. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MELI is at $1920. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MELI hits $1920 by Jun 19
+$20,378
+11.9% on $171,622 risked
Max Profit
+$20,378
If the stock โฅ $1920 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$171,622
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$1716.22
-3.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.17 / 96.79 / -279.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MELI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1419 (-20%) | -$30,486 | -$29,967 | -$29,723 | -$29,705 |
| $1508 (-15%) | -$22,473 | -$21,546 | -$20,935 | -$20,835 |
| $1597 (-10%) | -$15,034 | -$13,598 | -$12,365 | -$11,966 |
| $1685 (-5%) | -$8,322 | -$6,355 | -$4,305 | -$3,096 |
| $1738 (-2%) | -$4,695 | -$2,439 | +$117 | +$2,226 |
| $1774 (0%) โ spot | -$2,455 | -$29 | +$2,837 | +$5,774 |
| $1809 (+2%) | -$358 | +$2,211 | +$5,347 | +$9,322 |
| $1863 (+5%) | +$2,515 | +$5,246 | +$8,685 | +$14,644 |
| $1920 (+8%) โ target | +$5,250 | +$8,078 | +$11,680 | +$20,378 |
| $1951 (+10%) | +$6,592 | +$9,440 | +$13,055 | +$20,378 |
| $2040 (+15%) | +$9,839 | +$12,620 | +$16,020 | +$20,378 |
| $2129 (+20%) | +$12,351 | +$14,926 | +$17,846 | +$20,378 |
Uses MELI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.