Target Price Playground
META
$629.86
๐ข
META IV: 39.0% โ LOW
(-23.9% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $550 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $630 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $40.75 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $580 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.95 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $550 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$3,020 (152.5%) on $1,980 risked, vs $-7,986 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $62,986. Options give 12.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $550. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $550 by Jun 19
+$3,020
+152.5% on $1,980 risked
Max Profit
+$3,020
If the stock โค $580 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,980
Net debit
Break-even
$610.20
-3.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.88 / -1.8 / 18.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $504 (-20%) | +$2,315 | +$2,537 | +$2,834 | +$3,020 |
| $535 (-15%) | +$1,857 | +$2,076 | +$2,452 | +$3,020 |
| $550 (-13%) โ target | +$1,608 | +$1,799 | +$2,160 | +$3,020 |
| $567 (-10%) | +$1,299 | +$1,442 | +$1,733 | +$3,020 |
| $598 (-5%) | +$693 | +$714 | +$762 | +$1,183 |
| $617 (-2%) | +$332 | +$275 | +$157 | -$706 |
| $630 (0%) โ spot | +$100 | -$6 | -$223 | -$1,966 |
| $642 (+2%) | -$123 | -$271 | -$569 | -$1,980 |
| $661 (+5%) | -$433 | -$631 | -$1,007 | -$1,980 |
| $693 (+10%) | -$876 | -$1,118 | -$1,512 | -$1,980 |
| $724 (+15%) | -$1,223 | -$1,462 | -$1,783 | -$1,980 |
| $756 (+20%) | -$1,478 | -$1,686 | -$1,906 | -$1,980 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.