Target Price Playground
META
$629.86
๐ข
META IV: 39.0% โ LOW
(-23.9% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $550 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $630 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $40.75 ยท ฮ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $550 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$3,925 (96.3%) on $4,075 risked, vs $-7,986 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $62,986. Options give 7.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $550. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $550 by Jun 19
+$3,925
+96.3% on $4,075 risked
Max Profit
+$58,925
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$4,075
Premium paid
Break-even
$589.25
-6.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-47.72 / -26.59 / 107.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $504 (-20%) | +$8,469 | +$8,377 | +$8,382 | +$8,536 |
| $535 (-15%) | +$5,815 | +$5,546 | +$5,335 | +$5,387 |
| $550 (-13%) โ target | +$4,684 | +$4,327 | +$3,985 | +$3,925 |
| $567 (-10%) | +$3,470 | +$3,016 | +$2,513 | +$2,238 |
| $598 (-5%) | +$1,488 | +$888 | +$119 | -$912 |
| $617 (-2%) | +$483 | -$170 | -$1,037 | -$2,801 |
| $630 (0%) โ spot | -$111 | -$782 | -$1,680 | -$4,061 |
| $642 (+2%) | -$645 | -$1,322 | -$2,222 | -$4,075 |
| $661 (+5%) | -$1,342 | -$2,004 | -$2,857 | -$4,075 |
| $693 (+10%) | -$2,249 | -$2,839 | -$3,525 | -$4,075 |
| $724 (+15%) | -$2,891 | -$3,373 | -$3,853 | -$4,075 |
| $756 (+20%) | -$3,328 | -$3,695 | -$3,995 | -$4,075 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.