Target Price Playground
META
$629.86
๐ข
META IV: 39.0% โ LOW
(-23.9% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $690 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $629.86 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $600 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.65 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $690 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$3,249 (4.9%) on $65,751 risked, vs +$6,014 (9.5%) for 100 shares on $62,986. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $690. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $690 by Jun 19
+$3,249
+4.9% on $65,751 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$5,751
Put floors you at $600
Break-even
$657.51
+4.39% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.11 / -25.9 / 103.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $504 (-20%) | -$5,459 | -$5,679 | -$5,831 | -$5,751 |
| $535 (-15%) | -$4,714 | -$5,121 | -$5,557 | -$5,751 |
| $567 (-10%) | -$3,594 | -$4,154 | -$4,865 | -$5,751 |
| $598 (-5%) | -$2,071 | -$2,709 | -$3,562 | -$5,751 |
| $617 (-2%) | -$970 | -$1,613 | -$2,462 | -$4,025 |
| $630 (0%) โ spot | -$162 | -$793 | -$1,605 | -$2,765 |
| $642 (+2%) | +$700 | +$93 | -$662 | -$1,505 |
| $661 (+5%) | +$2,087 | +$1,530 | +$886 | +$384 |
| $690 (+10%) โ target | +$4,374 | +$3,915 | +$3,459 | +$3,249 |
| $724 (+15%) | +$7,345 | +$7,012 | +$6,748 | +$6,683 |
| $756 (+20%) | +$10,228 | +$9,996 | +$9,852 | +$9,832 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.