Target Price Playground
META
$629.86
๐ข
META IV: 39.0% โ LOW
(-23.9% vs 30d avg of 51.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $680 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $629.86 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $680 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.0 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $680 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$7,014 (11.5%) on $60,986 risked, vs +$5,014 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $62,986. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $680. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $680 by Jun 19
+$7,014
+11.5% on $60,986 risked
Max Profit
+$7,014
If the stock โฅ $680 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$60,986
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$609.86
-3.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.56 / 27.4 / -99.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $504 (-20%) | -$10,763 | -$10,645 | -$10,599 | -$10,597 |
| $535 (-15%) | -$7,843 | -$7,603 | -$7,464 | -$7,448 |
| $567 (-10%) | -$5,115 | -$4,706 | -$4,383 | -$4,299 |
| $598 (-5%) | -$2,649 | -$2,053 | -$1,456 | -$1,149 |
| $617 (-2%) | -$1,322 | -$619 | +$158 | +$740 |
| $630 (0%) โ spot | -$505 | +$260 | +$1,150 | +$2,000 |
| $642 (+2%) | +$255 | +$1,073 | +$2,063 | +$3,260 |
| $661 (+5%) | +$1,288 | +$2,165 | +$3,265 | +$5,149 |
| $680 (+8%) โ target | +$2,182 | +$3,090 | +$4,244 | +$7,014 |
| $693 (+10%) | +$2,729 | +$3,643 | +$4,798 | +$7,014 |
| $724 (+15%) | +$3,842 | +$4,722 | +$5,780 | +$7,014 |
| $756 (+20%) | +$4,670 | +$5,465 | +$6,337 | +$7,014 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.