Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MKSI hits $280 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,686 (7.4%) on $-1,686 credit (max loss $22,814), vs +$1,123 (4.2%) for 100 shares on $26,877. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MKSI is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MKSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $215 (-20%) | -$2,451 | -$2,104 | -$1,688 | -$1,312 |
| $228 (-15%) | -$1,675 | -$1,271 | -$750 | +$31 |
| $242 (-10%) | -$1,012 | -$574 | +$6 | +$1,375 |
| $255 (-5%) | -$457 | -$9 | +$578 | +$1,686 |
| $263 (-2%) | -$172 | +$271 | +$841 | +$1,686 |
| $269 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$436 | +$986 | +$1,686 |
| $274 (+2%) | +$158 | +$585 | +$1,110 | +$1,686 |
| $280 (+4%) โ target | +$316 | +$730 | +$1,224 | +$1,686 |
| $296 (+10%) | +$669 | +$1,038 | +$1,438 | +$1,686 |
| $309 (+15%) | +$905 | +$1,229 | +$1,546 | +$1,686 |
| $323 (+20%) | +$1,089 | +$1,368 | +$1,609 | +$1,686 |