Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MKSI hits $255 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,380 (109.7%) on $1,258 risked, vs $-1,377 (-5.1%) for 100 shares on $26,877. Options give 21.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MKSI is at $255. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MKSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $215 (-20%) | +$233 | +$310 | +$406 | +$357 |
| $228 (-15%) | +$203 | +$296 | +$444 | +$571 |
| $242 (-10%) | +$152 | +$252 | +$431 | +$909 |
| $255 (-5%) โ target | +$85 | +$181 | +$360 | +$1,380 |
| $263 (-2%) | +$35 | +$122 | +$285 | +$919 |
| $269 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$80 | +$227 | +$656 |
| $274 (+2%) | -$37 | +$34 | +$163 | +$417 |
| $282 (+5%) | -$95 | -$38 | +$57 | +$101 |
| $296 (+10%) | -$196 | -$167 | -$135 | -$319 |
| $309 (+15%) | -$300 | -$300 | -$329 | -$626 |
| $323 (+20%) | -$403 | -$430 | -$510 | -$842 |