Target Price Playground
MPWR
$1,353.85
๐ข
MPWR IV: 54.2% โ LOW
(-34.1% vs 30d avg of 82.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $1350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $116.41 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MPWR hits $1190 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$4,359 (37.4%) on $11,641 risked, vs $-16,385 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $135,385. Options give 3.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MPWR is at $1190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MPWR hits $1190 by Jun 19
+$4,359
+37.4% on $11,641 risked
Max Profit
+$123,359
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$11,641
Premium paid
Break-even
$1233.59
-8.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.5 / -83.13 / 228.33
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MPWR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1083 (-20%) | +$16,629 | +$15,761 | +$15,041 | +$15,051 |
| $1151 (-15%) | +$11,566 | +$10,284 | +$8,924 | +$8,282 |
| $1190 (-12%) โ target | +$8,899 | +$7,398 | +$5,658 | +$4,359 |
| $1218 (-10%) | +$7,094 | +$5,450 | +$3,452 | +$1,513 |
| $1286 (-5%) | +$3,241 | +$1,338 | -$1,143 | -$5,257 |
| $1327 (-2%) | +$1,225 | -$773 | -$3,422 | -$9,318 |
| $1354 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$2,034 | -$4,738 | -$11,641 |
| $1381 (+2%) | -$1,132 | -$3,183 | -$5,895 | -$11,641 |
| $1422 (+5%) | -$2,665 | -$4,703 | -$7,350 | -$11,641 |
| $1489 (+10%) | -$4,813 | -$6,746 | -$9,117 | -$11,641 |
| $1557 (+15%) | -$6,510 | -$8,261 | -$10,232 | -$11,641 |
| $1625 (+20%) | -$7,828 | -$9,354 | -$10,892 | -$11,641 |
Uses MPWR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.