Target Price Playground
MPWR
$1,353.85
๐ข
MPWR IV: 54.1% โ LOW
(-34.2% vs 30d avg of 82.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1490 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1353.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $1290 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $87.38 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MPWR hits $1490 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$4,877 (3.4%) on $144,123 risked, vs +$13,615 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $135,385. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MPWR is at $1490. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MPWR hits $1490 by Jun 19
+$4,877
+3.4% on $144,123 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$15,123
Put floors you at $1290
Break-even
$1441.23
+6.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.07 / -80.14 / 216.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MPWR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1083 (-20%) | -$12,454 | -$13,581 | -$14,717 | -$15,123 |
| $1151 (-15%) | -$10,298 | -$11,803 | -$13,592 | -$15,123 |
| $1218 (-10%) | -$7,498 | -$9,284 | -$11,594 | -$15,123 |
| $1286 (-5%) | -$4,052 | -$5,988 | -$8,561 | -$15,123 |
| $1327 (-2%) | -$1,691 | -$3,651 | -$6,238 | -$11,446 |
| $1354 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$1,951 | -$4,492 | -$8,738 |
| $1381 (+2%) | +$1,778 | -$145 | -$2,602 | -$6,030 |
| $1422 (+5%) | +$4,599 | +$2,748 | +$475 | -$1,969 |
| $1490 (+10%) โ target | +$9,730 | +$8,064 | +$6,195 | +$4,877 |
| $1557 (+15%) | +$15,137 | +$13,695 | +$12,254 | +$11,570 |
| $1625 (+20%) | +$20,923 | +$19,722 | +$18,674 | +$18,339 |
Uses MPWR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.