Target Price Playground
MPWR
$1,353.85
๐ข
MPWR IV: 54.2% โ LOW
(-34.1% vs 30d avg of 82.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $1460 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $1353.85 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $1460 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $89.0 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MPWR hits $1460 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$19,515 (15.4%) on $126,485 risked, vs +$10,615 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $135,385. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MPWR is at $1460. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MPWR hits $1460 by Jun 19
+$19,515
+15.4% on $126,485 risked
Max Profit
+$19,515
If the stock โฅ $1460 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$126,485
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$1264.85
-6.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.78 / 97.03 / -241.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MPWR Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1083 (-20%) | -$19,610 | -$18,797 | -$18,263 | -$18,177 |
| $1151 (-15%) | -$13,904 | -$12,698 | -$11,699 | -$11,408 |
| $1218 (-10%) | -$8,664 | -$7,040 | -$5,431 | -$4,639 |
| $1286 (-5%) | -$3,953 | -$1,939 | +$329 | +$2,131 |
| $1327 (-2%) | -$1,397 | +$815 | +$3,447 | +$6,192 |
| $1354 (0%) โ spot | +$192 | +$2,517 | +$5,360 | +$8,900 |
| $1381 (+2%) | +$1,689 | +$4,109 | +$7,130 | +$11,608 |
| $1422 (+5%) | +$3,763 | +$6,291 | +$9,506 | +$15,669 |
| $1460 (+8%) โ target | +$5,542 | +$8,132 | +$11,444 | +$19,515 |
| $1489 (+10%) | +$6,779 | +$9,389 | +$12,718 | +$19,515 |
| $1557 (+15%) | +$9,279 | +$11,857 | +$15,053 | +$19,515 |
| $1625 (+20%) | +$11,316 | +$13,768 | +$16,651 | +$19,515 |
Uses MPWR's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.