Target Price Playground
MRK
$121.42
๐ข
MRK IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 48.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.9 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.67 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $135 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$577 (136.4%) on $423 risked, vs +$1,358 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $12,142. Options give 12.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRK is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRK hits $135 by Jun 19
+$577
+136.4% on $423 risked
Max Profit
+$577
If the stock โฅ $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$423
Net debit
Break-even
$124.23
+2.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
25.66 / -1.21 / 1.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$395 | -$413 | -$422 | -$423 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$350 | -$384 | -$415 | -$423 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$270 | -$315 | -$377 | -$423 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$154 | -$194 | -$267 | -$423 |
| $119 (-2%) | -$71 | -$99 | -$155 | -$423 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | -$13 | -$30 | -$66 | -$281 |
| $124 (+2%) | +$45 | +$41 | +$30 | -$38 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$132 | +$146 | +$174 | +$326 |
| $134 (+10%) | +$264 | +$302 | +$373 | +$577 |
| $135 (+11%) โ target | +$292 | +$333 | +$409 | +$577 |
| $140 (+15%) | +$370 | +$418 | +$493 | +$577 |
| $146 (+20%) | +$447 | +$493 | +$548 | +$577 |
Uses MRK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.