Target Price Playground
MRK
$121.42
๐ข
MRK IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 48.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.47 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $110 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.2 ยท ฮ -0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $105 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$673 (205.8%) on $327 risked, vs $-1,642 (-13.5%) for 100 shares on $12,142. Options give 15.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRK is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRK hits $105 by Jun 19
+$673
+205.8% on $327 risked
Max Profit
+$673
If the stock โค $110 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$327
Net debit
Break-even
$116.73
-3.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.61 / -0.54 / 3.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | +$565 | +$606 | +$653 | +$673 |
| $103 (-15%) | +$460 | +$507 | +$581 | +$673 |
| $105 (-14%) โ target | +$421 | +$465 | +$542 | +$673 |
| $109 (-10%) | +$317 | +$348 | +$408 | +$673 |
| $115 (-5%) | +$159 | +$158 | +$155 | +$138 |
| $119 (-2%) | +$68 | +$48 | +$6 | -$226 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$10 | -$20 | -$80 | -$327 |
| $124 (+2%) | -$42 | -$80 | -$151 | -$327 |
| $127 (+5%) | -$111 | -$156 | -$229 | -$327 |
| $134 (+10%) | -$199 | -$242 | -$297 | -$327 |
| $140 (+15%) | -$257 | -$289 | -$319 | -$327 |
| $146 (+20%) | -$291 | -$312 | -$326 | -$327 |
Uses MRK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.