Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $125 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$220 (2.0%) on $-220 credit (max loss $10,780), vs +$358 (2.9%) for 100 shares on $12,142. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRK is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$1,111 | -$1,078 | -$1,053 | -$1,066 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$673 | -$606 | -$525 | -$459 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$336 | -$249 | -$133 | +$148 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$101 | -$17 | +$90 | +$220 |
| $119 (-2%) | -$2 | +$72 | +$157 | +$220 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$48 | +$114 | +$183 | +$220 |
| $125 (+3%) โ target | +$105 | +$158 | +$204 | +$220 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$134 | +$178 | +$212 | +$220 |
| $134 (+10%) | +$180 | +$205 | +$219 | +$220 |
| $140 (+15%) | +$202 | +$215 | +$220 | +$220 |
| $146 (+20%) | +$213 | +$219 | +$220 | +$220 |