Target Price Playground
MRK
$121.42
๐ข
MRK IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 48.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $121.42 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.67 ยท ฮ 0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $130 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,125 (9.5%) on $11,875 risked, vs +$858 (7.1%) for 100 shares on $12,142. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRK is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRK hits $130 by Jun 19
+$1,125
+9.5% on $11,875 risked
Max Profit
+$1,125
If the stock โฅ $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$11,875
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$118.75
-2.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.74 / 4.06 / -18.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$2,168 | -$2,162 | -$2,161 | -$2,161 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$1,580 | -$1,562 | -$1,554 | -$1,554 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$1,021 | -$978 | -$951 | -$947 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$511 | -$434 | -$365 | -$340 |
| $119 (-2%) | -$239 | -$140 | -$37 | +$24 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | -$73 | +$39 | +$164 | +$267 |
| $124 (+2%) | +$79 | +$202 | +$348 | +$510 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$280 | +$414 | +$582 | +$874 |
| $130 (+7%) โ target | +$400 | +$538 | +$713 | +$1,125 |
| $134 (+10%) | +$546 | +$684 | +$855 | +$1,125 |
| $140 (+15%) | +$731 | +$857 | +$999 | +$1,125 |
| $146 (+20%) | +$853 | +$958 | +$1,060 | +$1,125 |
Uses MRK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.