Target Price Playground
MRK
$121.42
๐ข
MRK IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 48.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.5 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.55 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $115 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$350 (118.5%) on $295 risked, vs $-642 (-5.3%) for 100 shares on $12,142. Options give 22.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRK is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRK hits $115 by Jun 19
+$350
+118.5% on $295 risked
Max Profit
+$346
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$295
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$121.46
+0.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.25 / 0.69 / 6.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | +$166 | +$174 | +$175 | +$166 |
| $103 (-15%) | +$153 | +$173 | +$191 | +$179 |
| $109 (-10%) | +$121 | +$148 | +$190 | +$233 |
| $115 (-5%) โ target | +$72 | +$97 | +$141 | +$369 |
| $119 (-2%) | +$30 | +$47 | +$76 | +$135 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$2 | +$13 | +$29 | +$23 |
| $124 (+2%) | -$27 | -$23 | -$20 | -$66 |
| $127 (+5%) | -$70 | -$75 | -$90 | -$162 |
| $134 (+10%) | -$135 | -$152 | -$184 | -$248 |
| $140 (+15%) | -$188 | -$210 | -$242 | -$281 |
| $146 (+20%) | -$228 | -$248 | -$272 | -$292 |
Uses MRK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.