Target Price Playground
MRK
$121.42
๐ข
MRK IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 48.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $121.42 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $135 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$1,358 (11.2%) on $12,142 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRK hits $135 by Jun 19
+$1,358
+11.2% on $12,142 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$12,142
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$121.42
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 13 | Jun 12 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$2,428 | -$2,428 | -$2,428 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$1,821 | -$1,821 | -$1,821 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$1,214 | -$1,214 | -$1,214 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$607 | -$607 | -$607 |
| $119 (-2%) | -$243 | -$243 | -$243 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $124 (+2%) | +$243 | +$243 | +$243 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$607 | +$607 | +$607 |
| $134 (+10%) | +$1,214 | +$1,214 | +$1,214 |
| $135 (+11%) โ target | +$1,358 | +$1,358 | +$1,358 |
| $140 (+15%) | +$1,821 | +$1,821 | +$1,821 |
| $146 (+20%) | +$2,428 | +$2,428 | +$2,428 |
Uses MRK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.