Target Price Playground
MRK
$121.42
๐ข
MRK IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 48.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $121.42 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $115 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.55 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $135 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,003 (8.0%) on $12,497 risked, vs +$1,358 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $12,142. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRK is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRK hits $135 by Jun 19
+$1,003
+8.0% on $12,497 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$997
Put floors you at $115
Break-even
$124.97
+2.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.24 / -4.0 / 17.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$1,021 | -$1,030 | -$1,025 | -$997 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$913 | -$958 | -$998 | -$997 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$721 | -$798 | -$894 | -$997 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$431 | -$523 | -$646 | -$962 |
| $119 (-2%) | -$210 | -$300 | -$418 | -$598 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | -$45 | -$131 | -$238 | -$355 |
| $124 (+2%) | +$133 | +$54 | -$38 | -$112 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$421 | +$355 | +$286 | +$252 |
| $134 (+10%) | +$946 | +$901 | +$867 | +$859 |
| $135 (+11%) โ target | +$1,076 | +$1,037 | +$1,008 | +$1,003 |
| $140 (+15%) | +$1,508 | +$1,482 | +$1,467 | +$1,466 |
| $146 (+20%) | +$2,092 | +$2,078 | +$2,073 | +$2,073 |
Uses MRK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.