Target Price Playground
MRK
$121.42
๐ข
MRK IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 48.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.9 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.47 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $140 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$763 (61.7%) on $1,237 risked, vs +$1,858 (15.3%) for 100 shares on $12,142. Options give 4.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRK is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRK hits $140 by Jun 19
+$763
+61.7% on $1,237 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,237
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$132.37
+9.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
24%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.55 / -9.31 / 40.45
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | +$1,021 | +$1,006 | +$1,017 | +$1,049 |
| $103 (-15%) | +$541 | +$469 | +$425 | +$442 |
| $109 (-10%) | +$190 | +$46 | -$100 | -$165 |
| $115 (-5%) | +$11 | -$191 | -$443 | -$772 |
| $119 (-2%) | -$6 | -$226 | -$511 | -$1,136 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$22 | -$202 | -$492 | -$1,095 |
| $124 (+2%) | +$78 | -$143 | -$424 | -$852 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$213 | +$5 | -$241 | -$488 |
| $134 (+10%) | +$553 | +$385 | +$217 | +$119 |
| $140 (+15%) โ target | +$1,030 | +$910 | +$811 | +$763 |
| $146 (+20%) | +$1,519 | +$1,432 | +$1,370 | +$1,333 |
Uses MRK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.