Target Price Playground
MRK
$121.42
๐ข
MRK IV: 30.4% โ LOW
(-37.3% vs 30d avg of 48.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.9 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRK hits $135 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$810 (117.4%) on $690 risked, vs +$1,358 (11.2%) for 100 shares on $12,142. Options give 10.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRK is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRK hits $135 by Jun 19
+$810
+117.4% on $690 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$690
Premium paid
Break-even
$126.90
+4.51% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
39%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.92 / -5.27 / 20.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRK Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $97 (-20%) | -$655 | -$678 | -$689 | -$690 |
| $103 (-15%) | -$591 | -$643 | -$682 | -$690 |
| $109 (-10%) | -$463 | -$551 | -$641 | -$690 |
| $115 (-5%) | -$249 | -$366 | -$508 | -$690 |
| $119 (-2%) | -$75 | -$202 | -$361 | -$690 |
| $121 (0%) โ spot | +$60 | -$68 | -$230 | -$548 |
| $124 (+2%) | +$209 | +$82 | -$74 | -$305 |
| $127 (+5%) | +$459 | +$339 | +$199 | +$59 |
| $134 (+10%) | +$932 | +$832 | +$732 | +$666 |
| $135 (+11%) โ target | +$1,053 | +$959 | +$867 | +$810 |
| $140 (+15%) | +$1,460 | +$1,382 | +$1,315 | +$1,273 |
| $146 (+20%) | +$2,022 | +$1,963 | +$1,915 | +$1,880 |
Uses MRK's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.