Target Price Playground
MRVL
$128.49
๐ข
MRVL IV: 59.9% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $145 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.68 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $140 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.7 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $145 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$602 (151.3%) on $398 risked, vs +$1,651 (12.8%) for 100 shares on $12,849. Options give 11.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $145. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $145 by Jun 19
+$602
+151.3% on $398 risked
Max Profit
+$602
If the stock โฅ $140 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$398
Net debit
Break-even
$133.98
+4.27% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.25 / -0.24 / -0.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$269 | -$307 | -$362 | -$398 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$215 | -$253 | -$319 | -$398 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$153 | -$185 | -$250 | -$398 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$85 | -$106 | -$157 | -$398 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$42 | -$56 | -$91 | -$398 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | -$14 | -$21 | -$44 | -$398 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$15 | +$14 | +$4 | -$292 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$57 | +$66 | +$76 | +$93 |
| $141 (+10%) | +$127 | +$150 | +$193 | +$602 |
| $145 (+13%) โ target | +$164 | +$196 | +$255 | +$602 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$192 | +$229 | +$298 | +$602 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$252 | +$299 | +$385 | +$602 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.