Target Price Playground
MRVL
$128.49
๐ข
MRVL IV: 59.9% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.2 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.89 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $115 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$469 (88.3%) on $531 risked, vs $-1,349 (-10.5%) for 100 shares on $12,849. Options give 8.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $115 by Jun 19
+$469
+88.3% on $531 risked
Max Profit
+$469
If the stock โค $120 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$531
Net debit
Break-even
$124.69
-2.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.9 / -0.55 / 1.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | +$261 | +$300 | +$370 | +$469 |
| $109 (-15%) | +$191 | +$223 | +$287 | +$469 |
| $115 (-10%) โ target | +$124 | +$144 | +$189 | +$469 |
| $122 (-5%) | +$39 | +$41 | +$50 | +$262 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$7 | -$15 | -$28 | -$123 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | -$37 | -$52 | -$79 | -$380 |
| $131 (+2%) | -$66 | -$87 | -$129 | -$531 |
| $135 (+5%) | -$109 | -$139 | -$198 | -$531 |
| $141 (+10%) | -$175 | -$218 | -$298 | -$531 |
| $148 (+15%) | -$235 | -$286 | -$375 | -$531 |
| $154 (+20%) | -$288 | -$343 | -$431 | -$531 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.