Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $135 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$989 (9.0%) on $-989 credit (max loss $11,011), vs +$651 (5.1%) for 100 shares on $12,849. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$1,164 | -$1,015 | -$847 | -$732 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$765 | -$585 | -$360 | -$89 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$423 | -$222 | +$43 | +$553 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$134 | +$77 | +$356 | +$989 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$15 | +$226 | +$502 | +$989 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | +$105 | +$314 | +$584 | +$989 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$188 | +$394 | +$654 | +$989 |
| $135 (+5%) โ target | +$302 | +$501 | +$743 | +$989 |
| $141 (+10%) | +$457 | +$639 | +$843 | +$989 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$581 | +$742 | +$906 | +$989 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$679 | +$818 | +$944 | +$989 |