Target Price Playground
MRVL
$128.49
๐ข
MRVL IV: 59.9% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.92 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.89 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $120 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$733 (104.3%) on $703 risked, vs $-849 (-6.6%) for 100 shares on $12,849. Options give 15.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $120 by Jun 19
+$733
+104.3% on $703 risked
Max Profit
+$727
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$616
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$134.48
+4.66% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.65 / 1.38 / 5.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | +$222 | +$266 | +$326 | +$333 |
| $109 (-15%) | +$187 | +$237 | +$319 | +$423 |
| $116 (-10%) | +$141 | +$191 | +$280 | +$570 |
| $120 (-7%) โ target | +$104 | +$150 | +$236 | +$710 |
| $122 (-5%) | +$85 | +$128 | +$210 | +$581 |
| $126 (-2%) | +$49 | +$85 | +$154 | +$362 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | +$23 | +$55 | +$112 | +$232 |
| $131 (+2%) | -$3 | +$23 | +$68 | +$113 |
| $135 (+5%) | -$43 | -$27 | -$1 | -$43 |
| $141 (+10%) | -$111 | -$111 | -$120 | -$251 |
| $148 (+15%) | -$178 | -$193 | -$232 | -$402 |
| $154 (+20%) | -$242 | -$272 | -$333 | -$508 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.