Target Price Playground
MRVL
$128.49
๐ข
MRVL IV: 59.9% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.2 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $115 by Jun 19: the long put returns $-20 (-1.3%) on $1,520 risked, vs $-1,349 (-10.5%) for 100 shares on $12,849. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $115 by Jun 19
$-20
-1.3% on $1,520 risked
Max Profit
+$11,480
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,520
Premium paid
Break-even
$114.80
-10.65% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.24 / -10.04 / 22.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | +$1,425 | +$1,316 | +$1,217 | +$1,201 |
| $109 (-15%) | +$957 | +$808 | +$647 | +$558 |
| $115 (-10%) โ target | +$579 | +$399 | +$182 | -$20 |
| $122 (-5%) | +$174 | -$35 | -$306 | -$727 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$21 | -$241 | -$530 | -$1,112 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | -$141 | -$366 | -$663 | -$1,369 |
| $131 (+2%) | -$254 | -$481 | -$783 | -$1,520 |
| $135 (+5%) | -$409 | -$638 | -$939 | -$1,520 |
| $141 (+10%) | -$632 | -$856 | -$1,141 | -$1,520 |
| $148 (+15%) | -$816 | -$1,028 | -$1,281 | -$1,520 |
| $154 (+20%) | -$966 | -$1,160 | -$1,375 | -$1,520 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.