Target Price Playground
MRVL
$128.49
๐ข
MRVL IV: 59.9% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $128.49 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $120 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.89 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $140 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$162 (1.2%) on $13,838 risked, vs +$1,151 (9.0%) for 100 shares on $12,849. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $140 by Jun 19
+$162
+1.2% on $13,838 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,838
Put floors you at $120
Break-even
$138.38
+7.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.66 / -9.49 / 20.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | -$1,406 | -$1,555 | -$1,723 | -$1,838 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$1,162 | -$1,342 | -$1,567 | -$1,838 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$862 | -$1,063 | -$1,328 | -$1,838 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$508 | -$719 | -$998 | -$1,631 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$272 | -$483 | -$759 | -$1,246 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | -$105 | -$314 | -$584 | -$989 |
| $131 (+2%) | +$69 | -$137 | -$397 | -$732 |
| $135 (+5%) | +$342 | +$143 | -$99 | -$347 |
| $140 (+9%) โ target | +$724 | +$538 | +$325 | +$162 |
| $141 (+10%) | +$828 | +$646 | +$442 | +$296 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$1,346 | +$1,185 | +$1,021 | +$938 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$1,891 | +$1,752 | +$1,626 | +$1,581 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.