Target Price Playground
MRVL
$128.49
๐ข
MRVL IV: 59.9% โ LOW
(-19.4% vs 30d avg of 74.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.68 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $130 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.2 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MRVL hits $150 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-988 (-33.1%) on $2,988 risked, vs +$2,151 (16.7%) for 100 shares on $12,849. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MRVL is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MRVL hits $150 by Jun 19
$-988
-33.1% on $2,988 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,988
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$100.12
-22.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.01 / -21.57 / 43.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MRVL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 (-20%) | +$287 | +$34 | -$198 | -$267 |
| $109 (-15%) | -$6 | -$338 | -$696 | -$910 |
| $116 (-10%) | -$198 | -$599 | -$1,079 | -$1,552 |
| $122 (-5%) | -$287 | -$740 | -$1,316 | -$2,195 |
| $126 (-2%) | -$292 | -$766 | -$1,379 | -$2,580 |
| $128 (0%) โ spot | -$275 | -$759 | -$1,389 | -$2,837 |
| $131 (+2%) | -$243 | -$733 | -$1,371 | -$2,882 |
| $135 (+5%) | -$167 | -$660 | -$1,298 | -$2,497 |
| $141 (+10%) | +$29 | -$455 | -$1,059 | -$1,854 |
| $148 (+15%) | +$303 | -$156 | -$698 | -$1,212 |
| $150 (+17%) โ target | +$415 | -$32 | -$548 | -$988 |
| $154 (+20%) | +$645 | +$223 | -$242 | -$569 |
Uses MRVL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.