Target Price Playground
MS
$177.64
๐ข
MS IV: 33.4% โ LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 59.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $200 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.78 ยท ฮ 0.51
SHORT CALL ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.55 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MS hits $200 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$577 (136.4%) on $423 risked, vs +$2,236 (12.6%) for 100 shares on $17,764. Options give 10.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MS is at $200. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MS hits $200 by Jun 19
+$577
+136.4% on $423 risked
Max Profit
+$577
If the stock โฅ $190 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$423
Net debit
Break-even
$184.23
+3.71% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.5 / -1.16 / 2.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | -$390 | -$410 | -$422 | -$423 |
| $151 (-15%) | -$346 | -$381 | -$414 | -$423 |
| $160 (-10%) | -$271 | -$316 | -$380 | -$423 |
| $169 (-5%) | -$167 | -$208 | -$284 | -$423 |
| $174 (-2%) | -$94 | -$124 | -$187 | -$423 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | -$42 | -$63 | -$109 | -$423 |
| $181 (+2%) | +$11 | +$1 | -$23 | -$304 |
| $187 (+5%) | +$90 | +$97 | +$111 | +$229 |
| $195 (+10%) | +$214 | +$247 | +$312 | +$577 |
| $200 (+13%) โ target | +$272 | +$314 | +$392 | +$577 |
| $204 (+15%) | +$321 | +$368 | +$450 | +$577 |
| $213 (+20%) | +$404 | +$454 | +$525 | +$577 |
Uses MS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.