Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MS hits $185 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$483 (3.0%) on $-483 credit (max loss $16,017), vs +$736 (4.1%) for 100 shares on $17,764. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MS is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | -$1,858 | -$1,811 | -$1,780 | -$1,806 |
| $151 (-15%) | -$1,187 | -$1,087 | -$977 | -$918 |
| $160 (-10%) | -$642 | -$505 | -$325 | -$29 |
| $169 (-5%) | -$233 | -$86 | +$111 | +$483 |
| $174 (-2%) | -$48 | +$92 | +$270 | +$483 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | +$52 | +$184 | +$342 | +$483 |
| $181 (+2%) | +$137 | +$258 | +$392 | +$483 |
| $185 (+4%) โ target | +$212 | +$319 | +$429 | +$483 |
| $195 (+10%) | +$350 | +$419 | +$472 | +$483 |
| $204 (+15%) | +$414 | +$457 | +$481 | +$483 |
| $213 (+20%) | +$449 | +$473 | +$483 | +$483 |