Target Price Playground
MS
$177.64
๐ข
MS IV: 33.4% โ LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 59.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $177.64 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $190 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.55 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MS hits $190 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,691 (9.8%) on $17,309 risked, vs +$1,236 (7.0%) for 100 shares on $17,764. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MS is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MS hits $190 by Jun 19
+$1,691
+9.8% on $17,309 risked
Max Profit
+$1,691
If the stock โฅ $190 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$17,309
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$173.09
-2.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.9 / 6.3 / -27.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | -$3,120 | -$3,103 | -$3,098 | -$3,098 |
| $151 (-15%) | -$2,274 | -$2,231 | -$2,212 | -$2,210 |
| $160 (-10%) | -$1,477 | -$1,392 | -$1,333 | -$1,321 |
| $169 (-5%) | -$757 | -$621 | -$491 | -$433 |
| $174 (-2%) | -$373 | -$206 | -$25 | +$100 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | -$139 | +$46 | +$259 | +$455 |
| $181 (+2%) | +$77 | +$276 | +$517 | +$810 |
| $187 (+5%) | +$364 | +$579 | +$849 | +$1,343 |
| $190 (+7%) โ target | +$529 | +$749 | +$1,028 | +$1,691 |
| $195 (+10%) | +$751 | +$971 | +$1,246 | +$1,691 |
| $204 (+15%) | +$1,032 | +$1,236 | +$1,470 | +$1,691 |
| $213 (+20%) | +$1,225 | +$1,399 | +$1,576 | +$1,691 |
Uses MS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.