Target Price Playground
MS
$177.64
๐ข
MS IV: 33.4% โ LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 59.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.3 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.3 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MS hits $170 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$612 (102.0%) on $600 risked, vs $-764 (-4.3%) for 100 shares on $17,764. Options give 23.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MS is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MS hits $170 by Jun 19
+$612
+102.0% on $600 risked
Max Profit
+$602
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$598
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$180.53
+1.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.18 / 1.15 / 7.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | +$323 | +$343 | +$353 | +$341 |
| $151 (-15%) | +$291 | +$328 | +$367 | +$357 |
| $160 (-10%) | +$229 | +$277 | +$350 | +$419 |
| $170 (-4%) โ target | +$121 | +$164 | +$239 | +$620 |
| $174 (-2%) | +$69 | +$103 | +$164 | +$352 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | +$20 | +$46 | +$89 | +$151 |
| $181 (+2%) | -$29 | -$14 | +$8 | -$20 |
| $187 (+5%) | -$104 | -$105 | -$116 | -$221 |
| $195 (+10%) | -$223 | -$248 | -$298 | -$433 |
| $204 (+15%) | -$327 | -$366 | -$430 | -$535 |
| $213 (+20%) | -$411 | -$453 | -$512 | -$578 |
Uses MS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.