Target Price Playground
MS
$177.64
๐ข
MS IV: 33.4% โ LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 59.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.7 ยท ฮ -0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MS hits $155 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,430 (133.6%) on $1,070 risked, vs $-2,264 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $17,764. Options give 10.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MS is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MS hits $155 by Jun 19
+$1,430
+133.6% on $1,070 risked
Max Profit
+$16,930
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,070
Premium paid
Break-even
$169.30
-4.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-49.4 / -6.84 / 30.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | +$2,625 | +$2,637 | +$2,669 | +$2,719 |
| $151 (-15%) | +$1,824 | +$1,795 | +$1,790 | +$1,831 |
| $155 (-13%) โ target | +$1,486 | +$1,435 | +$1,402 | +$1,430 |
| $160 (-10%) | +$1,101 | +$1,021 | +$946 | +$942 |
| $169 (-5%) | +$486 | +$357 | +$200 | +$54 |
| $174 (-2%) | +$175 | +$26 | -$169 | -$479 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | -$7 | -$164 | -$374 | -$834 |
| $181 (+2%) | -$170 | -$331 | -$547 | -$1,070 |
| $187 (+5%) | -$378 | -$537 | -$745 | -$1,070 |
| $195 (+10%) | -$640 | -$780 | -$942 | -$1,070 |
| $204 (+15%) | -$815 | -$923 | -$1,027 | -$1,070 |
| $213 (+20%) | -$925 | -$1,001 | -$1,058 | -$1,070 |
Uses MS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.