Target Price Playground
MS
$177.64
๐ข
MS IV: 33.4% โ LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 59.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $195 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $177.64 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.3 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MS hits $195 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,106 (6.0%) on $18,394 risked, vs +$1,736 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $17,764. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MS is at $195. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MS hits $195 by Jun 19
+$1,106
+6.0% on $18,394 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,394
Put floors you at $170
Break-even
$183.94
+3.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.08 / -6.8 / 28.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | -$1,407 | -$1,432 | -$1,434 | -$1,394 |
| $151 (-15%) | -$1,244 | -$1,320 | -$1,390 | -$1,394 |
| $160 (-10%) | -$967 | -$1,091 | -$1,243 | -$1,394 |
| $169 (-5%) | -$561 | -$711 | -$912 | -$1,394 |
| $174 (-2%) | -$255 | -$407 | -$609 | -$985 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | -$27 | -$176 | -$366 | -$630 |
| $181 (+2%) | +$219 | +$78 | -$96 | -$275 |
| $187 (+5%) | +$618 | +$493 | +$353 | +$258 |
| $195 (+10%) โ target | +$1,317 | +$1,222 | +$1,136 | +$1,106 |
| $204 (+15%) | +$2,146 | +$2,084 | +$2,042 | +$2,035 |
| $213 (+20%) | +$2,981 | +$2,943 | +$2,925 | +$2,923 |
Uses MS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.