Target Price Playground
MS
$177.64
๐ข
MS IV: 33.4% โ LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 59.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.78 ยท ฮ 0.51
LONG PUT ยท $180 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.7 ยท ฮ -0.49
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MS hits $205 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$552 (28.3%) on $1,948 risked, vs +$2,736 (15.4%) for 100 shares on $17,764. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MS is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MS hits $205 by Jun 19
+$552
+28.3% on $1,948 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$1,948
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$160.52
-9.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
1.19 / -14.31 / 60.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $142 (-20%) | +$1,801 | +$1,776 | +$1,792 | +$1,841 |
| $151 (-15%) | +$1,087 | +$981 | +$922 | +$953 |
| $160 (-10%) | +$530 | +$321 | +$123 | +$64 |
| $169 (-5%) | +$188 | -$118 | -$480 | -$824 |
| $174 (-2%) | +$99 | -$247 | -$685 | -$1,357 |
| $178 (0%) โ spot | +$90 | -$273 | -$742 | -$1,712 |
| $181 (+2%) | +$120 | -$251 | -$731 | -$1,829 |
| $187 (+5%) | +$236 | -$131 | -$595 | -$1,296 |
| $195 (+10%) | +$599 | +$272 | -$100 | -$408 |
| $205 (+15%) โ target | +$1,188 | +$929 | +$681 | +$552 |
| $213 (+20%) | +$1,808 | +$1,607 | +$1,445 | +$1,369 |
Uses MS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.