Target Price Playground
MSFT
$370.87
๐ข
MSFT IV: 32.0% โ LOW
(-26.5% vs 30d avg of 43.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.0 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.97 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $415 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,797 (149.4%) on $1,203 risked, vs +$4,413 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $37,087. Options give 12.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $415 by Jun 19
+$1,797
+149.4% on $1,203 risked
Max Profit
+$1,797
If the stock โฅ $400 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,203
Net debit
Break-even
$382.03
+3.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
22.81 / -2.5 / 4.18
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $297 (-20%) | -$1,102 | -$1,163 | -$1,199 | -$1,203 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$965 | -$1,070 | -$1,173 | -$1,203 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$735 | -$869 | -$1,059 | -$1,203 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$415 | -$534 | -$753 | -$1,203 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$191 | -$277 | -$454 | -$1,203 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | -$33 | -$90 | -$215 | -$1,116 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$127 | +$103 | +$46 | -$374 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$366 | +$394 | +$445 | +$738 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$740 | +$841 | +$1,036 | +$1,797 |
| $415 (+12%) โ target | +$868 | +$989 | +$1,212 | +$1,797 |
| $427 (+15%) | +$1,056 | +$1,197 | +$1,436 | +$1,797 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$1,300 | +$1,447 | +$1,650 | +$1,797 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.