Target Price Playground
MSFT
$370.87
๐ข
MSFT IV: 32.6% โ LOW
(-25.0% vs 30d avg of 43.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.35 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $340 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.4 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $325 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,905 (174.0%) on $1,095 risked, vs $-4,587 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $37,087. Options give 14.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $325 by Jun 19
+$1,905
+174.0% on $1,095 risked
Max Profit
+$1,905
If the stock โค $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,095
Net debit
Break-even
$359.05
-3.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.87 / -2.6 / 11.16
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $297 (-20%) | +$1,571 | +$1,697 | +$1,840 | +$1,905 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$1,281 | +$1,422 | +$1,644 | +$1,905 |
| $325 (-12%) โ target | +$1,089 | +$1,214 | +$1,439 | +$1,905 |
| $334 (-10%) | +$898 | +$996 | +$1,187 | +$1,905 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$467 | +$481 | +$509 | +$672 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$211 | +$171 | +$85 | -$440 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$49 | -$24 | -$174 | -$1,095 |
| $378 (+2%) | -$105 | -$204 | -$399 | -$1,095 |
| $389 (+5%) | -$312 | -$439 | -$666 | -$1,095 |
| $408 (+10%) | -$592 | -$731 | -$933 | -$1,095 |
| $427 (+15%) | -$790 | -$911 | -$1,044 | -$1,095 |
| $445 (+20%) | -$919 | -$1,009 | -$1,082 | -$1,095 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.