Target Price Playground
MSFT
$370.87
๐ข
MSFT IV: 32.6% โ LOW
(-25.0% vs 30d avg of 43.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $370.87 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.97 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $400 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$3,910 (10.8%) on $36,090 risked, vs +$2,913 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $37,087. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $400 by Jun 19
+$3,910
+10.8% on $36,090 risked
Max Profit
+$3,910
If the stock โฅ $400 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$36,090
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$360.90
-2.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.22 / 14.3 / -58.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $297 (-20%) | -$6,456 | -$6,427 | -$6,420 | -$6,420 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$4,676 | -$4,600 | -$4,568 | -$4,566 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$2,989 | -$2,832 | -$2,729 | -$2,712 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$1,451 | -$1,188 | -$949 | -$857 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$624 | -$296 | +$47 | +$255 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | -$117 | +$250 | +$663 | +$997 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$351 | +$753 | +$1,229 | +$1,739 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$978 | +$1,418 | +$1,966 | +$2,851 |
| $400 (+8%) โ target | +$1,493 | +$1,952 | +$2,531 | +$3,910 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$1,829 | +$2,289 | +$2,868 | +$3,910 |
| $427 (+15%) | +$2,451 | +$2,884 | +$3,391 | +$3,910 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$2,882 | +$3,256 | +$3,644 | +$3,910 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.