Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder
MSFT
$370.87
๐ŸŸข
MSFT IV: 32.6% โ€” LOW (-25.0% vs 30d avg of 43.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $350 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

67d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.75 ยท ฮ” -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.25 ยท ฮ” -0.3
P&L at Expiry Now $371 Target $350 $260 $371 $482
Stock (100 sh) Diagonal Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If MSFT hits $350 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,372 (130.7%) on $1,050 risked, vs $-2,087 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $37,087. Options give 23.3ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if MSFT hits $350 by Jun 19
+$1,372
+130.7% on $1,050 risked
Max Profit
+$1,332
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โˆ’$1,049
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$374.46
+0.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-14.04 / 2.05 / 21.96
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

MSFT Price Today May 5 May 27 Jun 19 (exp)
$297 (-20%) +$787 +$834 +$860 +$831
$315 (-15%) +$711 +$793 +$886 +$878
$334 (-10%) +$569 +$668 +$825 +$1,048
$350 (-6%) โ† target +$393 +$479 +$632 +$1,405
$363 (-2%) +$220 +$277 +$375 +$567
$371 (0%) โ† spot +$118 +$154 +$210 +$195
$378 (+2%) +$15 +$29 +$40 -$112
$389 (+5%) -$138 -$156 -$208 -$462
$408 (+10%) -$375 -$436 -$553 -$809
$427 (+15%) -$574 -$656 -$785 -$964
$445 (+20%) -$730 -$813 -$920 -$1,023
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.