Target Price Playground
MSFT
$370.87
๐ข
MSFT IV: 32.6% โ LOW
(-25.0% vs 30d avg of 43.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.0 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $415 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$2,300 (104.5%) on $2,200 risked, vs +$4,413 (11.9%) for 100 shares on $37,087. Options give 8.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $415 by Jun 19
+$2,300
+104.5% on $2,200 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,200
Premium paid
Break-even
$392.00
+5.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.59 / -16.8 / 62.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $297 (-20%) | -$2,064 | -$2,152 | -$2,196 | -$2,200 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$1,852 | -$2,032 | -$2,168 | -$2,200 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$1,455 | -$1,745 | -$2,039 | -$2,200 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$818 | -$1,200 | -$1,658 | -$2,200 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$309 | -$724 | -$1,244 | -$2,200 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$84 | -$341 | -$878 | -$2,113 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$518 | +$92 | -$441 | -$1,371 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$1,242 | +$830 | +$334 | -$259 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$2,620 | +$2,261 | +$1,877 | +$1,596 |
| $415 (+12%) โ target | +$3,191 | +$2,856 | +$2,519 | +$2,300 |
| $427 (+15%) | +$4,168 | +$3,876 | +$3,608 | +$3,450 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$5,836 | +$5,608 | +$5,423 | +$5,304 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.