Target Price Playground
MSFT
$370.87
๐ข
MSFT IV: 32.6% โ LOW
(-25.0% vs 30d avg of 43.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.35 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $325 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$2,565 (132.6%) on $1,935 risked, vs $-4,587 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $37,087. Options give 10.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $325 by Jun 19
+$2,565
+132.6% on $1,935 risked
Max Profit
+$35,065
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,935
Premium paid
Break-even
$350.65
-5.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.79 / -14.69 / 62.35
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $297 (-20%) | +$5,227 | +$5,238 | +$5,294 | +$5,395 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$3,585 | +$3,504 | +$3,468 | +$3,541 |
| $325 (-12%) โ target | +$2,790 | +$2,652 | +$2,539 | +$2,565 |
| $334 (-10%) | +$2,127 | +$1,937 | +$1,743 | +$1,687 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$909 | +$627 | +$269 | -$168 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$306 | -$8 | -$428 | -$1,280 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | -$43 | -$368 | -$805 | -$1,935 |
| $378 (+2%) | -$350 | -$677 | -$1,110 | -$1,935 |
| $389 (+5%) | -$738 | -$1,051 | -$1,447 | -$1,935 |
| $408 (+10%) | -$1,215 | -$1,475 | -$1,759 | -$1,935 |
| $427 (+15%) | -$1,521 | -$1,713 | -$1,881 | -$1,935 |
| $445 (+20%) | -$1,708 | -$1,836 | -$1,921 | -$1,935 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.