Target Price Playground
MSFT
$370.87
๐ข
MSFT IV: 32.6% โ LOW
(-25.0% vs 30d avg of 43.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $410 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $370.87 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.25 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $410 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2,788 (7.3%) on $38,212 risked, vs +$3,913 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $37,087. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $410 by Jun 19
+$2,788
+7.3% on $38,212 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,212
Put floors you at $350
Break-even
$382.12
+3.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
69.74 / -13.54 / 52.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $297 (-20%) | -$3,194 | -$3,262 | -$3,286 | -$3,212 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$2,809 | -$2,986 | -$3,165 | -$3,212 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$2,172 | -$2,441 | -$2,784 | -$3,212 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$1,255 | -$1,563 | -$1,977 | -$2,979 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$574 | -$877 | -$1,272 | -$1,867 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | -$69 | -$360 | -$722 | -$1,125 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$471 | +$200 | -$118 | -$383 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$1,341 | +$1,107 | +$862 | +$729 |
| $410 (+11%) โ target | +$3,102 | +$2,945 | +$2,819 | +$2,788 |
| $427 (+15%) | +$4,615 | +$4,510 | +$4,446 | +$4,438 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$6,381 | +$6,320 | +$6,294 | +$6,292 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.