Target Price Playground
MSFT
$370.87
๐ข
MSFT IV: 32.0% โ LOW
(-26.5% vs 30d avg of 43.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $425 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $22.0 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.35 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $425 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$1,365 (33.0%) on $4,135 risked, vs +$5,413 (14.6%) for 100 shares on $37,087. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $425 by Jun 19
+$1,365
+33.0% on $4,135 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,135
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$411.35
+10.91% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.8 / -31.49 / 124.68
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $297 (-20%) | +$3,163 | +$3,085 | +$3,098 | +$3,195 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$1,733 | +$1,472 | +$1,299 | +$1,341 |
| $334 (-10%) | +$672 | +$192 | -$296 | -$513 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$91 | -$572 | -$1,389 | -$2,368 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$3 | -$732 | -$1,672 | -$3,480 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$41 | -$709 | -$1,682 | -$4,048 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$168 | -$584 | -$1,551 | -$3,306 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$503 | -$221 | -$1,113 | -$2,194 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$1,405 | +$785 | +$118 | -$339 |
| $425 (+15%) โ target | +$2,536 | +$2,041 | +$1,589 | +$1,365 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$4,128 | +$3,772 | +$3,501 | +$3,369 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.