Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 25.3% โ LOW
(-46.7% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.93 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.43 ยท ฮ -0.19
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $380 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$2,250 (180.0%) on $1,250 risked, vs $-5,369 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $43,369. Options give 14.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSI is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $380 by Jun 19
+$2,250
+180.0% on $1,250 risked
Max Profit
+$2,250
If the stock โค $400 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,250
Net debit
Break-even
$422.50
-2.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-26.49 / -2.78 / 22.63
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | +$2,037 | +$2,143 | +$2,227 | +$2,250 |
| $369 (-15%) | +$1,734 | +$1,899 | +$2,111 | +$2,250 |
| $380 (-12%) โ target | +$1,496 | +$1,666 | +$1,929 | +$2,250 |
| $390 (-10%) | +$1,239 | +$1,388 | +$1,650 | +$2,250 |
| $412 (-5%) | +$617 | +$660 | +$739 | +$1,049 |
| $425 (-2%) | +$238 | +$202 | +$120 | -$252 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$82 | -$251 | -$1,119 |
| $442 (+2%) | -$219 | -$336 | -$561 | -$1,250 |
| $455 (+5%) | -$504 | -$650 | -$894 | -$1,250 |
| $477 (+10%) | -$851 | -$990 | -$1,160 | -$1,250 |
| $499 (+15%) | -$1,058 | -$1,154 | -$1,234 | -$1,250 |
| $520 (+20%) | -$1,166 | -$1,219 | -$1,248 | -$1,250 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.