Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 25.3% โ LOW
(-46.7% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $485 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.2 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $470 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.66 ยท ฮ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $485 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$2,246 (179.2%) on $1,254 risked, vs +$5,131 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $43,369. Options give 15.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSI is at $485. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $485 by Jun 19
+$2,246
+179.2% on $1,254 risked
Max Profit
+$2,246
If the stock โฅ $470 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,254
Net debit
Break-even
$447.54
+3.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
26.6 / -3.53 / 11.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | -$1,220 | -$1,246 | -$1,254 | -$1,254 |
| $369 (-15%) | -$1,129 | -$1,203 | -$1,249 | -$1,254 |
| $390 (-10%) | -$912 | -$1,050 | -$1,199 | -$1,254 |
| $412 (-5%) | -$529 | -$691 | -$947 | -$1,254 |
| $425 (-2%) | -$225 | -$361 | -$611 | -$1,254 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$102 | -$303 | -$1,254 |
| $442 (+2%) | +$234 | +$177 | +$58 | -$518 |
| $455 (+5%) | +$589 | +$606 | +$639 | +$783 |
| $477 (+10%) | +$1,135 | +$1,255 | +$1,482 | +$2,246 |
| $485 (+12%) โ target | +$1,308 | +$1,450 | +$1,705 | +$2,246 |
| $499 (+15%) | +$1,564 | +$1,725 | +$1,972 | +$2,246 |
| $520 (+20%) | +$1,859 | +$2,002 | +$2,167 | +$2,246 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.