Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 24.6% โ LOW
(-48.2% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $470 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $433.69 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $470 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.66 ยท ฮ 0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $470 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,397 (10.3%) on $42,603 risked, vs +$3,631 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $43,369. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSI is at $470. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $470 by Jun 19
+$4,397
+10.3% on $42,603 risked
Max Profit
+$4,397
If the stock โฅ $470 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$42,603
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$426.03
-1.77% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
72.51 / 13.3 / -61.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | -$7,913 | -$7,908 | -$7,908 | -$7,908 |
| $369 (-15%) | -$5,767 | -$5,744 | -$5,739 | -$5,739 |
| $390 (-10%) | -$3,678 | -$3,605 | -$3,573 | -$3,571 |
| $412 (-5%) | -$1,722 | -$1,549 | -$1,427 | -$1,402 |
| $425 (-2%) | -$654 | -$406 | -$183 | -$101 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$300 | +$602 | +$766 |
| $442 (+2%) | +$601 | +$949 | +$1,333 | +$1,633 |
| $455 (+5%) | +$1,398 | +$1,802 | +$2,291 | +$2,934 |
| $470 (+8%) โ target | +$2,137 | +$2,572 | +$3,118 | +$4,397 |
| $477 (+10%) | +$2,435 | +$2,872 | +$3,418 | +$4,397 |
| $499 (+15%) | +$3,131 | +$3,531 | +$3,984 | +$4,397 |
| $520 (+20%) | +$3,556 | +$3,880 | +$4,193 | +$4,397 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.