Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 25.3% โ LOW
(-46.7% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $410 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $435 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.81 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $410 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.03 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $410 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,446 (113.2%) on $1,278 risked, vs $-2,369 (-5.5%) for 100 shares on $43,369. Options give 20.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSI is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $410 by Jun 19
+$1,446
+113.2% on $1,278 risked
Max Profit
+$1,396
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,278
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$432.64
-0.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.6 / 0.91 / 27.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | +$1,022 | +$1,060 | +$1,075 | +$1,073 |
| $369 (-15%) | +$926 | +$1,009 | +$1,086 | +$1,083 |
| $390 (-10%) | +$719 | +$834 | +$1,000 | +$1,164 |
| $410 (-5%) โ target | +$428 | +$525 | +$692 | +$1,446 |
| $425 (-2%) | +$161 | +$215 | +$302 | +$415 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$22 | +$48 | -$53 |
| $442 (+2%) | -$160 | -$169 | -$203 | -$424 |
| $455 (+5%) | -$389 | -$438 | -$540 | -$817 |
| $477 (+10%) | -$712 | -$800 | -$938 | -$1,143 |
| $499 (+15%) | -$947 | -$1,035 | -$1,143 | -$1,247 |
| $520 (+20%) | -$1,098 | -$1,166 | -$1,231 | -$1,272 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.