Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 25.3% โ LOW
(-46.7% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $485 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.2 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $485 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$2,980 (147.5%) on $2,020 risked, vs +$5,131 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $43,369. Options give 12.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSI is at $485. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $485 by Jun 19
+$2,980
+147.5% on $2,020 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$2,020
Premium paid
Break-even
$455.20
+4.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.09 / -16.82 / 73.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | -$1,981 | -$2,012 | -$2,020 | -$2,020 |
| $369 (-15%) | -$1,867 | -$1,964 | -$2,015 | -$2,020 |
| $390 (-10%) | -$1,571 | -$1,783 | -$1,963 | -$2,020 |
| $412 (-5%) | -$975 | -$1,309 | -$1,689 | -$2,020 |
| $425 (-2%) | -$438 | -$822 | -$1,295 | -$2,020 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$401 | -$905 | -$2,020 |
| $442 (+2%) | +$500 | +$95 | -$408 | -$1,284 |
| $455 (+5%) | +$1,358 | +$972 | +$516 | +$17 |
| $477 (+10%) | +$3,037 | +$2,719 | +$2,401 | +$2,186 |
| $485 (+12%) โ target | +$3,712 | +$3,424 | +$3,154 | +$2,980 |
| $499 (+15%) | +$4,938 | +$4,699 | +$4,494 | +$4,354 |
| $520 (+20%) | +$6,977 | +$6,796 | +$6,648 | +$6,523 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.