Target Price Playground
MSI
$433.69
๐ข
MSI IV: 25.3% โ LOW
(-46.7% vs 30d avg of 47.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $435 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.93 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSI hits $380 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$3,707 (206.7%) on $1,793 risked, vs $-5,369 (-12.4%) for 100 shares on $43,369. Options give 16.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSI is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSI hits $380 by Jun 19
+$3,707
+206.7% on $1,793 risked
Max Profit
+$41,707
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,793
Premium paid
Break-even
$417.07
-3.83% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
26%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.91 / -11.51 / 73.74
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSI Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $347 (-20%) | +$6,693 | +$6,780 | +$6,889 | +$7,012 |
| $369 (-15%) | +$4,638 | +$4,658 | +$4,725 | +$4,843 |
| $380 (-12%) โ target | +$3,627 | +$3,591 | +$3,604 | +$3,707 |
| $390 (-10%) | +$2,766 | +$2,671 | +$2,609 | +$2,675 |
| $412 (-5%) | +$1,193 | +$976 | +$714 | +$506 |
| $425 (-2%) | +$430 | +$163 | -$193 | -$795 |
| $434 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$284 | -$670 | -$1,662 |
| $442 (+2%) | -$367 | -$655 | -$1,041 | -$1,793 |
| $455 (+5%) | -$809 | -$1,079 | -$1,417 | -$1,793 |
| $477 (+10%) | -$1,300 | -$1,501 | -$1,701 | -$1,793 |
| $499 (+15%) | -$1,567 | -$1,689 | -$1,776 | -$1,793 |
| $520 (+20%) | -$1,697 | -$1,761 | -$1,791 | -$1,793 |
Uses MSI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.